Skiing And Climate Change.

The 2006/7 winter season was the warmest since 1950 with, according to Météo France, average temperatures 2.1 degrees higher than the seasonal normal. This makes 2006/7 one of the hottest winters in France since 1950 including those of 1989/90 and 1974/75 both of which had temperatures of two degrees above the seasonal norm. “This remarkably soft winter followed up an exceptionally warm autumn 2006, ever observed during the period 1950-2006 and undoubtedly even ever lived for several centuries” observed Météo France. The pattern began after a particularly dry autumn where France received 20-30% less rain fell than is typical for the time of year. And, if the temperatures of December were only slightly higher than the seasonal norm (+0.4°C), those of January and February exceeded it by 3°C. January 2007 ended as the second hottest January in France behind 1988 (+3.1°C).

This has meant that rain/snow limits have been higher this year than most winters, generally hovering around 1300m in February, but as high as 2000-2500 at the start of the season. As a result of this resorts situated below 1500m suffered with little snow cover on the lower slopes and the impossibility of making artificial snow, as temperatures were too high, resulting in many resorts having less than half their normal snow base on their lower slopes in February - although this situation was rectified in March with above average precipitation than normal.

The British media certainly painted a bleak picture of the snow conditions in the alps. However, reports of the death of the European ski industry were greatly over exaggerated and, although the season started off badly, it improved at altitude with ski areas above 1800m enjoying good skiing conditions. But due to the entrenched public belief that there was no snow in the alps many skiers have stayed at home. With the threat of global warming turning into a reality the chances are that we’ll see a repeat of this seasons uneven snow distribution in the future. The problem, therefore, is one of altitude. Precipitation levels were no lower than average, it’s just that any snow that fell on lower lying slopes was frequently washed away by the rain which followed.

So what does this mean for the future of skiing? Many ski areas below 1500m will not be able to survive, or will have to diversify; so either those at high altitude such as Val Thorens, Chamonix or Zermatt, or the super domains such as The Three Valleys or The Portes du Soleil will survive. Skiers will more and more have to take advantage of the prevailing conditions which poses additional problems for big resorts who take on their staff for fixed contracts. Perhaps more people will take up cross country skiing and ski mountaineering, and sales in snow shoes are increasing.

But, when it comes to sifting through the veritable avalanche of predictions, more or less disastrous, one should remain cautious. As it is, the same amount of precipitation is falling just at different times of the season. The ‘normal’ amount of time may depend only on two or three big snowfalls during the season; what is important here is the dates. Too early and the first big dump will fall as rain causing a poor start to the season and causing problems later on. So don't throw away your skis just yet, after all some experts have also predicted that a modification in the Gulf Stream as the Arctic ice melts would make the French Alps even colder. For the next ten to twenty years it is likely that we will experience the same situation which we have seen over the last decade: poor snow at low altitude but with the occasional ‘real’ winters. Skiers in the 21st century will have to search for snow depending on altitude and area, country and, perhaps, even continent.